EDUCATION

CURRENT

POSITIONS

Ph.D., Syracuse University , Regional Economics, Econometrics

 and Mathematical Economics, 1973

M.A.,  Syracuse University , Economics, 1972

B.A.,  Rutgers University , Magna Cum Laude, 1969

Managing Partner, Center for Education Strategies, LLC, located at 66 Long Hill Road , Leverett , MA

Managing Partner, World Institute for Social and Economic Research, located at 66 Long Hill Road , Leverett , MA

Research Professor, Faculty Associate CCEA, Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, and Board of Directors of the UConn CIBER, one of 31 national Centers for International Business and Education Research

Principal international advisor, University of Fort Hare, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa , establishing a center for international trade and workforce development

CURRENT

EXPERIENCE

2004 — Current

POSITIONS (immediately prior to taking early retirement from UMass Dec. 31, 2003)

Education Research:

Conducting the Know Your Schools Projects for the States of New York (March 2009 – February 2013, AIRE SUNY Albany ), New Jersey (July 2009 – June 2014 NJ Education Foundation of the Chamber of Commerce), and Massachusetts (October 2009 – March 2011 MS Business Alliance for Education). In each of the three States, will capture data on individual schools and districts, including school demographic and student test-performance data for the past three or more academic years and develop a statistical warehouse that can be accessed over the internet by parents and others. Data allow comparisons of schools and districts with respect to their characteristics and the standardized test scores of their students by grade. The comparisons are adjusted for differences in socio-demographic characteristics of attending students (i.e., each school is compared to schools with students of similar socio-economic characteristics). The data warehouse will be updated annually as new enrollment and test data become available. CES develops and maintains the websites as part of its contract responsibilities.

Senior economist, technical expert on the Community Colleges as the Classroom for America ’s Workforce Study for the US Department of Labor (Under subcontract to IMPAQ International).  Responsible for data source identification, site visits and analysis of secondary data sources evaluating effective practices of community colleges in retraining America ’s public workforce system.

Senior economist on the Graduate Employment Outcomes Study for the Advanced Technological Education Program at the National Science Foundation (Under subcontract to the Academy for Education Development).   Responsible for the utilization and analysis of Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage Records portion of the study. To examine employment outcomes of the 2006, 2007, and 2008 graduating cohorts of bio-manufacturing/bio-technology and process technology programs from six community colleges using UI wage record data.

Evaluation of the relationship between the college success of the 1998 high school graduating cohort of CT public schools and the cohort’s tenth grade CAPT test and SAT scores.  Major follow-up extending prior work to the CT high school graduating cohorts of 1998 – 2002 to determine success beyond high school, considering success not only in post-secondary education but also in labor market experiences.  Follow-on funded by the Nellie Mae Education Foundation, CT SDE, CT DHE, CT DOL, UConn, CSU, CT CC System, and College Board, 2004-2008.

Analysis of effects of shifts in the racial and ethnic and age distribution of the population of New England on educational attainment to the potential workforce in each of the New England States. Work done for the Nellie Mae Education Foundation (with Joe Berger, UMass, Amherst), 2003 – 2006. 

International Trade:

Work in international trade focuses on development of a system, WISERTrade, producing unique information on the size, growth and competition in major world markets by detailed commodity groups.  Annual subscription and other data sales already exist to the majority of U.S. States; the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors, World Trade Centers, major as well as small and medium sized enterprises, as well as a growing market in foreign countries.  WISERTrade has agreements for redissemination of data with the U.S. , Canada , the EU, Japan , China and Taiwan ; significant because trade involving these countries accounts for roughly 90% of the world’s total bilateral trade flows.  Individual country data is augmented with information from UNDESA’s Statistical Division for 134 more countries, making the database the largest on international trade in the world.  Current work includes analysis of reconciliations (resolutions of apparent differences in export trade from A to B relative to import trade of B from A), and imputations of current trade flows from ancillary data, to be reported back to UNDESA.    Reports on the State of the States’ international standing in trade (Delaware to Maine and North Dakota), a recurring Index of Exporter Confidence, popular pieces on State competitiveness and commissioned studies such as a recent one for the Hampden Co. (Massachusetts) Regional Employment Board and the John Adams Innovation Institute on the high precision machining and tooling industry are regular features of this work. 

Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social and Behavioral Sciences

Director, Massachusetts Institute for Social and Economic Research (MISER)

President, Accelerated eXport Enhancement Systems, Inc. (AXES, Inc.) Non-profit subsidiary of the Foundation of the UMass Amherst founded July 1991 to carry out dissemination of international trade data.

EXPERIENCE

1981 – 2003

1979‑1981

EXPERIENCE

1978 ‑ 1979

1972 ‑ 1978

THE UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AT AMHERST, AMHERST , MA  

Professor, Department of Political Science, 1992 -2003

Courses:  · Policy Analysis and Choice: Statistical Analysis of Policy Choices

· Microeconomics of Policy Analysis

Professor, General Business & Finance, 1981 ‑ 1992

Courses:  · Statistics, Business Data Analysis (MBA curriculum)

· Business Forecasting (MBA curriculum)

· Microeconomic Theory (Ph.D. curriculum)

· Statistics, Econometrics (Ph.D. curriculum)

· Managerial Economics (MBA and undergraduate curricula)

Director, Massachusetts Institute for Social and Economic Research, 1982-2003

Direct the administrative functions of the Institute.  Principal Investigator on funded research on projects involving education, finance, economic development, demographic change and foreign trade for many of the state's executive and legislative offices as well as for federal agencies.  Institute research was used in formulation of public policy.  Institute maintained a database on federal and state information relevant to Massachusetts , under five Memorandum of Understanding / Joint Statistical Agreements between the Commonwealth of Massachusetts or the University and various agencies in the Department of Commerce.

Education Research:

Analysis of the impact of demographic change on enrollment, annual since 1985.  Construction of twenty‑six models, forecasting enrollments at each of the Massachusetts public campuses—in compliance with requirements of long‑range planning guidelines of the Massachusetts Board of Regents, 1985.  Assessment of teacher supply and demand conditions in elementary and secondary schools in the Commonwealth for the Department of Education, the Massachusetts Board of Regents, and the Massachusetts Higher Education Assistance Corporation, 1987.  Evaluation of the impact of early retirement programs for teachers, 1989.  The construction of a policy model to test the impact of changes in State, elementary and secondary policy for the Northeast Educator Supply and Demand, 1991.  Construction of a regional teacher supply and demand model for the Northeast states, New York and New England, resulting in a regional certification program, for the Regional Laboratory for the Northeast and the Islands and the New England Commissioners of Education 1988-1992.  Study of the Impact of shifting populations by race and ethnicity on preparedness of New England ’s workforce beyond 2000, Nellie Mae Corporation 1994. Creation of a system measuring accountability for the State’s programs of education and training, Department of Labor and Workforce Development, the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education the Massachusetts and, the MassJobs Council 1994-2002. High School Alumni Survey, Amherst Regional High School 1997-98. Assessment of High School Alumni—Learning in the High School: A Five School Experiment, Massachusetts Department Of Education, 1999-2003

Finance:

Work for the Bureau of the Budget, the House Ways and Means Committee and the Joint Legislative Local Aid Commission on the maintenance of a data base and construction of a formula for Local Aid distribution, 1983-1989.  Evaluation of electric utility rate proposals under consideration by the Department of Public Utilities, 1989.  Economic Due Diligence Statement as part of bond release from Commonwealth, Office of the State Treasurer 1991-2003.

Economic Development:

Developed a review of community impact models used to assess large scale U.S. investment in infrastructure for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1983.  Built the microcomputer software for the solution of the State's econometric model maintained in the Massachusetts Bureau of the Budget, 1985.  Committee member/and demographic analysis for the State's work on Blueprint 2000, 1989.  Analysis of the Federal Reserve Bank Survey of Consumer Finance and Flow‑of‑Funds Data Tapes.  Evaluation of market penetration of new products, pricing and demand shifts under various demographic situations, Life Insurance Marketing Research Association, 1989.  Limited Income Heating Assistance Program Benefit Evaluation, Division of Housing and Community Development, 1992-93; 1995; and 1997-98.  Assessment of Numbers of Minority and Women Owned Construction Firms for a State Affirmative Market Program, Executive Office of Transportation and Construction, 1996-97.

Demographic Analysis:

Represent the State in the Federal State cooperative Programs for Population Estimates and Projections, 1982-1991.  Produced biannual population projections for cities and towns by age, race and sex, Massachusetts Interagency Committee for Population Statistics, 1986-current.  Statistical audit of the accuracy of the State's mid‑decade Census, Office of the Secretary of State 1985.  Analysis of Regional Demographic Change for the Integrated Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) Planning, Massachusetts Department of Highways, 1996.  Co-chair of the Massachusetts Interagency Committee for Population Statistics, 1986-2003.  State representative (legislature and Governor’s Office) on technical aspects of redistricting.

Foreign Trade: 

Improvement of the state-of-origin database on foreign trade produced by the federal government under a memorandum of agreement, quarterly since 1987.  Built a management information system for foreign trade development for New York State (contract assigned by University from MISER to AXES, formed by the University as a subsidiary of the University Foundation), 1991.  Produce the only non-federal information included in the National Trade Data Bank created by U.S. Department of Commerce to comply with the 1988 U.S. Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act, monthly since 1990-1999.  Creation of the Massachusetts Quarterly Trade Index, Associated Industries of Massachusetts, 1994-current.

Accelerated eXport Enhancement Systems, AXES, Inc.

President

Corporation was formed as first research corporation, subsidiary of the University of Massachusetts Foundation .  Designed to commercialize software accessing foreign trade information, enhance governmental management of trade development, and sponsor research on international affairs and international relations.  Contracts with New York State Department of Economic Development, 1991-1994 and Massachusetts Port Authority, 1991-1997; other contracts with the States of Michigan, Wisconsin , Minnesota , Ohio , Connecticut .  Sales of data to every state in the U.S.; provision of information to the White House in support of the NAFTA agreements and the Mexican bailout; current involvement in the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas.

THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE , KNOXVILLE , TN

Associate Professor, Department of Economics,

          Courses: · Intermediate Microeconomic Theory (BA curriculum)

· Principles of Economic Theory (BA curriculum)

Director of Research, Center for Business and Economic Research

Project Director of the Tennessee Econometric Model used in the Governor's State of the State economic message annually.  The model, by law, set the revenue cap on State tax collections.  Developed emergency preparedness plans, Tennessee Energy Office.  Project Director of projects for the Tennessee State Planning Office and the Tennessee Valley Authority on energy and economic relations.  Directed an evaluation of electrical rates constructed by TVA in compliance with PURPA.

ABT ASSOCIATES INC., CAMBRIDGE , MA   

Senior Economist

Deputy Project Director and Staff Economist on projects on energy conservation for the U.S. Dept. of HEW (Community Services Administration) and on rural, infrastructure investment for the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (Farmer's Home Administration).

THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY , UNIVERSITY PARK , PA  

Assistant Professor, Department of Economics

          Courses:    · Regional Macroeconomics (Ph.D. curriculum)

· Mathematical Economics (B.A. and M.A. curricula)

· Introductory and Intermediate Economics (B.A. curriculum)

· Microeconomics (M.B.A. curriculum)

· Intermediate Microeconomics (B.A. curriculum)

Research Economist, Institute for Research on Land and Water Resources,

Project Director on several studies of economic development and water resource investment, sponsors including: Ford and Rockefeller Foundations, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Office of Water Research and Technology (U.S. Dept. of the Interior), and the National Demonstration Water Project.

OTHER PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

OTHER PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE (Continued):

Consultant, United Nations Development Programme, for work on the evaluation of sources of disarray within post-conflict societies, begun in Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2007.

Consultant, Wharton Econometric Forecast Associates, ISTEA Population Forecasts, 1998.

Consultant, Drinker, Biddle and Reath, NCAA Proposition 48, 1997-98.

Consultant, Connecticut Department of Education enrollment forecasts, 1993.

Consultant, New York State Department of Economic Development, 1992-95.

Governor's representative, Federal/State Cooperative Population Estimates and Projections Task Force, State of Massachusetts, 1982‑present.

Governor's representative, Federal/State Cooperative Population Projections Task Force, State of Tennessee , 1979‑1981.

Chairman, Executive Committee, Southeastern Economic Analysis Conferences, 1979‑1981.

Consultant, Econometric Evaluation of Water Resource Pricing 1981‑82.  National Science Foundation project at the University of West Virginia on water supply rate designs.

Representative, National Academy of Science , Transportation Research Board Subcommittee on Transportation Quality of Life, 1978‑1979

Consultant, Abt Associates, Inc., 1979.  Econometrician, Prospective Rate Reimbursement Study of Hospital Cost Containment, Health Care Finance Administration (HEW).

Consultant, State of Arkansas Econometric Model, 1980‑1981. Economic Development Administration project on the development of substate econometric forecasts.

Consultant, McGraw‑Hill Publishing Company, editorial referee for economic editor, 1975.

Consultant, Dunn Geoscience Corporation, 1974‑1976.  Cost‑Benefit statement on a set of dams for Soil Conservation Service.

Consultant, Rignani Associates, 1973‑1976.  Environmental impact statement for Penn DOT and Maryland SHA.

Consultant, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1971‑1973.  Evaluation of land value impacts of water and sewer investments in Nairobi , Kenya , and Kuala Lumpur , Malaysia .

Research Associate, Syracuse University Research Corporation. 1971‑1972. Water resources research.

Consultant, First Trust and Deposit Corporation, Syracuse , NY , 1970.  Forecast of regional bank deposit growth for a prospective merger.

SELECTED

PUBLICATIONS:

SELECTED

PUBLICATIONS

(Continued):

SELECTED

PUBLICATIONS

(Continued):

Selected Articles in Journals and Periodicals  

“The Future Shape of World Exports to the BRIC Countries,” Chapter 12: Emerging Economies And The Transformation Of International Business Brazil , Russia , India and China (BRICs), Edited by Subhash C. Jain, Edgar Elgar Publishing, Ltd., 2006

"Bowen and Sosa’s Faculty Prospects in the Arts and Sciences," Economics of Education Review, Volume 10, 1991.

“Estimating Post-Secondary Student Flow with Limited Data” (with D. Rumpf and F. Creran), Research in Higher Education, Vol. 27, no.1, 1987, pp. 39-49.

“An Aggregate Model of Manufacturing Firm Migration” (with R. Nakosteen and M. Zimmer), Vol. 17, no.2, 1987, pp57-66.

"Regression Analysis of Regional Quality of Life", Social Indicators Research, vol.8, no.4, December 1980, pp.467‑479.

"Regional Income Convergence/Divergence Again", Journal of Regional Science, vol. 18, no. 3, December 1978, pp. 447‑458.

"Economic Analysis of Pronatalist and Abortion Policies" (with R. McIntyre), Journal of Political Economy, vol. 86, no. 6, December 1978, pp. 1077‑1102.

"Structural Change in Models of Migration: Omission of Psychic Income", Review of Regional Studies, vol. 7, no. 1, Spring 1977, pp. 81‑86.

Selected Final Contract Reports

“Next Steps: Preparing a Quality Workforce,” with Sevinç Rende and Doug Fulton, report for Nellie Mae Education Foundation, CT SDE, CT DHE, CT DOL, UConn, CSU, CT Community College System, and College Board, http://ccea.uconn.edu/studies/08apr_NextSteps.pdf, April, 2008

“Pension Reform and Social Protection Systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina ,” with Sevinç Rende and Dorothy Rosenberg, report of UNDP, forthcoming: release in Bosnia-Herzegovina, November 2007.

“Market Opportunities for the Precision Tooling and Machining Industry of Massachusetts,” report commissioned by the Hampshire County ( Massachusetts ) Regional Employment Board for the John Adams Innovation Institute, forthcoming December 2007.

“New England 2020, A Forecast of Educational Attainment and Its Implications for the Workforce of New England States,” June 2006, Nellie Mae Education Foundation, with Joe Berger, http://www.nmefdn.org/uploads/NE_2020_FR.pdf.

“First Steps in Connecticut Beyond Secondary School : the Implications of High Stakes Testing and College Entrance Exams as Predictors of College Success of Students by Race and Ethnicity,” Summer 2006, Nellie Mae Education Foundation.

“Race and the Metropolitan Origin of Postsecondary Access: The Case of Greater Boston ,” With Joseph Berger and Suzanne Smith, Summer 2004, Harvard Civil Rights Project.

“The Importance of Latin America To U.S. International Trade,” MISER Position Paper, published 2003 at http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/laimpall.html .

“ Massachusetts Public Higher Education: A Shrewd Investment with Significant Returns,” with J. Berger and R. Forest, January 2002, Massachusetts Board of Higher Education, http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/index.html.

“Diversity Among Equals: Educational Opportunity and the State of Affirmative Admissions in New England , October 2001, Nellie Mae Education Foundation, http://www.nmefdn.org/uploads/Diversity_Among_Equals.pdf.

“Health Insurance Status in Massachusetts : Implications for Small Areas,” September 1999, Division of Medical Assistance, http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/health.pdf .

“Survey of Outcomes of Amherst Regional High School,” August 1998, Amherst Regional School System, 60 pp., http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/survey.pdf .

 “Wellesley School Enrollment Forecasts—Community Enrollment Life Cycle Models,” 1997, Wellesley School System, 12 pp., http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/wellrept.pdf . 

“Establishment of Affirmative Market Goals,” Sept. 1997, Executive Office of Transportation and Construction, 22 pp., http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/affmkt.pdf .

“Demographic Projections for the State and Its Transportation Planning Regions to the Year 2020,” January 1995, Executive Office of Transportation and Construction, 146 pp. 

“Design of a Fuel Assistance Benefit Distribution Formula”, October 1994, Executive Office for Community Development, 28 pp., http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/fuelasst.pdf .

“Beyond 2000: Demographic Change, Education and the Workforce, 1993, Nellie Mae, http://www.umass.edu/miser/news/article3.html.

_________________________

note: papers marked as at www.umass.edu/miser/... are being moved and will be available from www.wisertrade.com and from www.edstrat.org, but are currently available on request from Coelen.